Trade turmoil creates global uncertainty in seafood markets but as salmon companies report strong first quarters, the sector’s resilience points to a brighter outlook, writes Jenny Hjul in this month’s round-up of industry news

The fall-out from ‘liberation day’, the moment on April 2 when Donald Trump unveiled his country-by-country trade tariffs, continues to disrupt seafood markets.

Salmon farmers are mostly still in limbo land as a ‘pause’, announced a week later to avert financial meltdown, remains in place until July, with a universal 10% tariff on US imports.

For Scotland, which saw exports to the US increase 61% last year to £225 million, the hope is that the UK government’s efforts to achieve a deal will protect what is now its second largest market.

Salmon Scotland chief executive Tavish Scott met First Minister John Swinney last week to call for a joined-up approach on the issue.

‘Our producers are extremely confident that consumer demand in the US will remain strong, but there is uncertainty about the indirect impact across global markets,’ said Scott. ‘We need to ensure that Scotland remains economically competitive, and we want both the Scottish and UK governments to continue working collaboratively and calmly on this.’

Norway’s salmon exports to the US increased by  NOK 1.1 billion (£79.5 million) in the first quarter of this year alone, up 47% on the same period last year, underlining the importance of the market to Norwegian fish farmers. Facing a 15% tariff initially, including on salmon, producers cautioned that the situation could worsen.

‘We must avoid a ‘triple whammy’ – where we not only face tariffs in the US, but in the worst-case scenario, also face retaliatory measures in the EU,’ said Mowi CEO Ivan Vindheim, urging the Norwegian government not to impose additional burdens on the aquaculture sector, Salmon Business reported.

Demand for Chilean salmon in the US, its largest market, has already dropped by around 20% as buyers have been put off by the uncertainty, Intrafish reported. Arturo Clement, president of salmon industry umbrella association Salmon Chile, has asked the Chilean government to negotiate the cancelling of the 10 per cent tariff.

In more positive news, some of the big salmon companies reported significant upturns in the Q1 preliminary results, with Lerøy Seafood Group harvesting 44.7% more fish compared to the same period last year; and Mowi harvesting more fish and making a higher operating profit, with lower costs, compared to Q1 2024.

Faroese producer Bakkafrost also reported a strong start to the year, harvesting 18,900 tonnes of salmon in the Faroe Islands, a 32% increase compared to Q1 2024.

DNB Markets said it expects better biological performance to offset some of the negative pricing impact caused by the trade turmoil. It highlighted the sector’s historic resilience to past downturns and said recent share price declines leave stocks attractively valued.

All change

DNB also predicted that Norway’s new aquaculture policy — outlined in the government’s long-awaited White Paper which links biomass limits to sea lice levels — may constrain supply growth in the short to medium term, but could pave the way for more sustainable expansion longer term.

The Norwegian government is planning to regulate the impact of lice through tradable quotas for lice emissions, with the quotas set on the basis of what nature can tolerate in a given area, Fish Farming Expert reported.

Permits will still be required but will contain no restrictions on quantity, ensuring ‘the players will be able to greatly influence the opportunities for growth for their own company’, said fisheries minister Marianne Sivertsen Næss.

Described as a minor revolution in aquaculture, the proposals replace the current traffic light and Maximum Allowed Biomass (MAB) systems and could herald a transition to more closed-containment production.

There will also be penalties imposed for fish deaths, with a government target to reduce mortality to under five per cent. In the case of mortality caused by environmental factors, such as jellyfish swarms or algal blooms, the measures would be hard to enforce, however.

The Storting (parliament) will now consider the report, but it is unlikely to pass in its current form without a political consensus, according to Intrafish.

Ivan Vindheim pleaded for ‘no new taxes, fees, requirements or regulatory changes that weaken the competitiveness of Norwegian aquaculture’. While, Geir Ove Ystmark, CEO of Seafood Norway, said the new scheme could have ‘dramatic effects on investment and development opportunities’, adding: ‘We need calm at home. The world economy is very unpredictable.’

Innovation updates

The Norwegians have developed a potential solution for jellyfish attacks. Research institute Nofima and innovator Harbor have devised an electric shock treatment that appears to neutralise ‘barbed wire’ jellyfish Apolemia uvaria, stinging jellyfish and other poisonous marine parasites in a few seconds, Fish Farming Expert reported.

Harbor already produces an electric fence for salmon pens that inactivates sea lice with low-voltage electrical pulses before they attach to the fish. Tests have shown the fence could also trigger jellyfish stings before they reach the pens, rendering the parasites harmless.

Nofima and Harbor, who presented their research at the Gill Health Initiative forum in Galway this week, are now looking for funding for larger scale sea trials in collaboration with salmon producers.

Around the world

Canadians have begun casting their ballots in early voting for their election on April 28, a closely run contest which has seen the Liberals, headed by Prime Minister Mark Carney, edge ahead.

The aquaculture sector has called on the federal government to strengthen, not suppress, Canada’s ability to produce sustainable seafood at home, given the precarious state of cross-border trade.

The Liberal government is moving ahead with its plan to ban open-net salmon farming in British Columbia by 2029, despite its own scientists saying the marine farms pose less than a minimal risk to migrating wild stocks, SeaWestNews reported.

Aquaculture advocates say the tariff turbulence only heightens the need for Canada to boost its domestic production capacity and reverse policies that undermine the sector.

In Australia, anti-salmon farming activists have been accused of ‘weaponising’ an endangered species in Tasmania to try to shut down the sector. A report by University of Tasmania professor emeritus of government Aynsley Kellow dismissed claims linking salmon farms to the potential extinction of the Maugean skate in Macquarie Harbour, Tasmania, as ‘questionable’ and ‘thin’.

‘It is not clear that aquaculture and the skate cannot coexist, and even if salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour were to be prohibited, that would not guarantee the survival of a species with highly limited population numbers and habitat,’ said Kellow in his paper Skating over thin evidence: The weaponisation of endangered species laws in the Tasmanian salmon wars.

The Tasmanian sector has endured a long-running battle over the sustainability of salmon farming in the region and has been supported by both the Tasmanian and the federal governments.

In the Falklands, meanwhile, a joint venture company is hoping legislators will approve plans for salmon farming operations in the remote archipelago. Unity Marine believes aquaculture will strengthen the islands’ economy and make the most of the Falklands’ natural resources, but the fate of the project hangs in the balance, The Fish Site reported.

‘Aquaculture was a key part of the Island Plan, which is our government’s top level strategy document, for many, many years,’ said Unity Marine’s James Wallace. The process launched by Unity Marine was ‘hijacked essentially by a small group of local activists’, he added, which led to the Falklands Islands Government (FIG) banning aquaculture in March 2022.

FIG is now reviewing this decision and will rule later this year on whether to allow a targeted 50,000-tonne salmon sector to go ahead, ensuring the Falklands’ future prosperity.

Awards shortlist

And finally, the shortlist has been announced for the Aquaculture Awards 2025, to be presented in Inverness on June 19. To see the full list, visit aquacultureawards.com/the-finalists-2025/

Keep up to date with the industry’s top stories, all in our next news review