Trump victory raises fears of tariff barriers for salmon sector worldwide, but Scotland’s focus is closer to home as parliamentary inquiry concludes, writes Jenny Hjul in this month’s round-up of industry news

Global events have created alarm in the seafood sector in the past month, with the election of Donald Trump in the US presidential race and the potential threat that brings to international trade.

That Trump is in favour of tariffs is no surprise, of course – he did say ‘tariff’ was his favourite word, but as from January 20 when he enters the White House, exporters to the States will be anxiously awaiting their governments’ negotiating positions.

If he imposes a 10 to 20 per cent tariff on all imported goods, as he has suggested, seafood firms could take a big hit.

Norwegian salmon farmer Kvaroy Fish Farming sells more than 80 per cent of its fish to the States and CEO Alf-Goran Knutsen told Intrafish that Trump’s victory could result in ‘problematic’ customs barriers.

Mowi CEO Ivan Vindheim was more phlegmatic, saying that with around 80 per cent of all seafood consumed by the US imported, tariffs ‘would be irrational, and only affect American consumers’ as prices would rise.

In Scotland, the sector, which exports around 20 per cent of its salmon (22 per cent in value) to the States, is currently tariff-free and naturally hoping to avoid the punitive levies imposed on Scottish whisky five years ago.

The 25 per cent tariff on single malt Scotch whisky, levied between October 2019 and March 2021 as part of a dispute with the EU over subsidies to aircraft maker Airbus, cost more than £600 million in lost exports.

Tavish Scott, CEO of trade body Salmon Scotland, said it would be strange for Trump to complain about the impacts of inflation and the cost of living on domestic consumers during the election campaign only to impose higher costs on them through the introduction of tariffs.

‘Our task will be to work with retail and wholesale outlets in North America on what the tariff could mean, so that adding to the pressure on domestic cost of living in the USA would be seen as a negative,’ he told Intrafish.

In more upbeat news for Scottish salmon farmers, Rabobank global seafood specialist Gorjan Nikolik, addressing the Global Seafood Alliance summit in St Andrews in October, said Scotland’s salmon production will be up by 15 per cent this year compared to 2023, which was down from a difficult 2022 that saw the industry’s total production drop 18 per cent.

‘Congratulations to Scotland coming back so strongly, and it seems like this is one of the best years Scottish salmon has had in a long time,’ Nikolik said.

Scottish producers reported their best survival rate in four years, in fact, following investment of nearly £1 billion in fish health and welfare. Mortalities have been around half of those experienced in 2023, when increased sea temperatures and blooms of micro-jellyfish led to low survival rates.

Farmers have invested in freshwater treatment vessels, staff training, and improved monitoring systems to respond better to environmental conditions. Mowi Scotland boss Ben Hadfield told the Rural Affairs and Islands committee (RAIC) that the cost of hiring wellboats to treat fish for lice and gill problems was £25,000 per day per vessel.

Looking forward, Nikolik predicted Scotland would continue to increase production in 2025 and 2026, by an estimated sever per cent and six per cent, respectively.

Norway’s salmon sector has returned to growth, too, but Chile ‘will not surpass 2020 supply, even in 2026, based on biomass in the water’.

Production in Canada was also flat, but Iceland was ‘one of the countries to watch in the next five to six years’, with volume up 24 per cent in 2024, said Nikolik.

[Continued innovation]

Longer term, production of farmed salmon is projected to increase by 27 per cent worldwide by 2030, according to seafood analyst Kontali.

And growth is expected to reach 40 per cent above current levels by 2033, boosted in part by expanding land-based production, Fish Farming Expert reported.

After a prolonged period of stagnation, growth will depend on continued innovation to address regulatory constraints, health challenges, and changing weather patterns, said Kontali.

Norwegian producer Leroy revealed in its Q3 results in November that it planned to invest an extra £25 million in submersible cages to shield up to 45 per cent of its salmon by mid-2025.

‘New data reinforces our belief that shielding, particularly through submerged cages, leads to a reduced need for treating the fish against sea lice,’ said CEO Henning Beltestad.

‘Compared to traditional farming methods, this approach has reduced lice treatment frequency by nearly 90 per cent, with positive impacts on survival rates, the share of superior-quality fish, and overall fish welfare.’

Mowi, meanwhile, has invested around €100 million (£83.5 million) in R&D over the past three years, in particular on its new egg-to-harvest Smart Farming system that deploys ‘next-generation’ cameras; underwater net-cleaning robots; drones to spot harmful algae blooms and jellyfish; and lasers to zap sea lice.

Mowi is rolling out its Smart Farms throughout Norway initially, and has plans to introduce the concept across areas of Scotland and Chile.

In Canada, Cooke has chosen the route of vertical integration to grow its business, adding one of the biggest producers of fishmeal and fish oil, Copeinca, to its ever-expanding portfolio.

Copeinca is the largest fishing company in Peru, with the biggest single share of the country’s anchovy quota, and the deal will give Cooke control of approximately 200,000 tonnes of fishmeal and 23,000 tonnes of fish oil production per year, Intrafish reported.

The state of Peru’s anchovy fishery, which accounts for around one-fifth of global fishmeal supply, has a direct impact on the cost of aquaculture feed. This year, IFFO, the marine ingredients organisation, said the significant year-on-year increase of the Peruvian supply (up 23 per cent for the first nine months of this year) spelt good news for aquafeed prices, Fish Farmer reported.

Key to the growth of salmon farming everywhere is overcoming opposition, improving the sector’s social licence and removing unnecessary red tape in the consenting process. In Scotland, producers hope to see progress following the RAIC inquiry, which finished taking oral evidence when the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs appeared in committee session on November 13.

Mairi Gougeon told MSPs that farmers were doing everything they could to maximise survival, that the environmental challenges seen recently were beyond their control and that, as a result, the sector should not be penalised and prevented from growing sustainably.

Salmon companies must now wait for the outcome of the inquiry, which is looking at the implementation of recommendations from a previous probe in 2018. RAIC is expected to deliver its report shortly before Christmas.

Keep up to date with the industry’s top stories, all in our next news review.